As COP30, held in Belem between November 10 and 21, 2025, draws to a close, it is becoming increasingly clear that the next decade of climate action lies directly with the supply chain.

Even against a backdrop of complex negotiations - marked by debates on climate finance, social justice and the preservation of the Amazon - the central message is unequivocal: governments, investors and society expect companies to take a leading role in reducing emissions.

For those working in supply chain, logistics, planning and operations, "post-COP30" is no longer an abstract topic: it has become an agenda of risk, cost, competitiveness and medium-term survival.

What COP30 signals for companies and supply chains

The conference reinforced three main axes that directly impact the supply chain: forest protection, financing e climate justice.

Even with political and financial differences, the emerging issues are already knocking on companies' doors:

  • Pressure to reduce Scope 3 emissionsThese represent more than 70% of the total footprint in many sectors.
  • Traceability and chains free from deforestationespecially in agricultural commodities, minerals and forestry products.
  • Transparency and datawith the expectation of more robust reports, targets and transition indicators.
  • Inclusion of small suppliersThis is essential in the decarbonization journey - especially in emerging economies.

In practice, the supply chain ceases to be just an operational arm and becomes one of the main vectors for meeting climate targets, mitigating regulatory risks and maintaining access to demanding markets.

Why the supply chain is at the heart of the climate agenda

Studies show that eight major global chains account for more than 50% of annual GHG emissionsand most of these emissions occur along the supply chain - not in the final operation.

What's more:

  • Logistics (transportation + warehousing) accounts for at least 7% of global emissions.
  • For many corporations, the Scope 3 exceeds 75% of the total footprint.

In other words: if the company only looks at Scopes 1 and 2, will not come close to the targets required in the post-COP30 scenario.

This has direct implications:

  • Choosing suppliersa cleaner, closer and more traceable matrix.
  • Designing the logistics networkwhere to produce, store, consolidate and distribute.
  • Modes of transportroad, rail, cabotage, air, electric, multimodal.
  • Integrated planningreduction of waste, rework and unnecessary transportation.

All of this is essentially a decision problemand today decisions need to be supported by robust mathematical models.

Three post-COP30 moves to transform your supply chain

1. Put emissions at the heart of supply chain planning

Until recently, planning models only considered cost e service level. Now there is a third obligatory dimension: emissions.

Tools such as Otimix e iDRP allow multiple scenarios to be simulated, drawing the mesh based on multiple business objectives.

2. Tracking the chain from end to end

COP30 intensifies the debate on traceability - especially in chains linked to the Amazon, food, minerals and sectors with socio-environmental risks.

This requires:

  • Integrate supplier data decision systems.
  • Capture origin, certifications, ESG practices and associated risks.
  • Modeling purchase restrictions directly in the optimization algorithms.

Without this complete vision, it is practically impossible to meet the audits, regulators and customers demanding deforestation-free chains.

3. Redesign the logistics network with a vision of transition

Climate finance, infrastructure and clean transportation were sensitive points at COP30.

Companies will have to decide:

  • Where it makes sense bringing production and consumption closer togethershortening routes.
  • Which logistics corridors to invest in lower emission modes (rail, cabotage, inland navigation, multimodality).
  • How to balance cost, lead time, emissions and climate risks.

Models of network design become essential to simulate dozens or hundreds of combinations before any decision is made.

Conclusion: the message to the supply chain is direct

At the end of COP30, regardless of the final wording of the negotiated texts, three messages are clear:

  • Decarbonizing supply chains is a prerequisite for meeting global climate targets.
  • Data, traceability and decision models become as important as trucks, CDs and transactional systems.
  • Companies that act now will be in a better position to serve clients, regulators and investors.

Those working in the supply chain cannot treat COP30 as a one-off event: it represents a landmark change in the way we plan and operate.

How Linear can help

If your company:

  • You need reducing emissions without losing competitiveness;
  • Want redesigning the logistics network based on data and scenarios;
  • Integration cost, capacity, taxes, demand and emissions in a single model;

Linear Softwares Matemáticos can be your partner on this journey.

Get in touch and discover how mathematical models can turn your decarbonization strategy into concrete results.

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